According to the study conducted at Oxford University, 47 percent of existing professions will disappear in the next 25 years. The Economist magazine's report states that no government is prepared for this situation.
In the United States, one of President Trump's election promises was to hire citizens. Although Trump stated that he will do this by moving production activities domestically, the main reason for the decrease in the number of jobs in production is mechanization. Due to similar situations, populist movements close to Trump's gained power in many countries. But aside from increasing job opportunities, economists around the world believe that many more professions will disappear with the advancement of artificial intelligence, robotics, and other technologies. Essentially, the debate on this issue continues over how quickly to get to the anticipated point.
Now, a specialist from the University of Pennsylvania Wharton Business Department has begun to ring the alarm bells. Art Bilger, a faculty member of the Business Department and entrepreneur, points out that 47 percent of existing professions will disappear in the next 25 years, referring to the work done in Oxford. According to The Economist magazine, there is no government that has prepared itself for the disappearance of these business branches. Among the professions to be deleted, there are areas that will affect both blue and white collar workers. Until now, technology had only taken away the jobs of blue-collar workers, which mostly affected workers in the manufacturing sector.
To combat this structural unemployment and prepare people for the dire impending end, Bilger set up a nonprofit organization. The process of unemployment has not only increased dramatically, it has already become irreversible. Entrepreneur Bilger therefore calls on governments, universities, companies and non-profit organizations to modernize their workforce.
One point needs to be made clear; mechanization is a development that always takes our job from our hands. Automatic looms, for example, take away the work of weavers. But it also creates new jobs. The mechanic must keep the machine running, the worker must use it, and so many new jobs arise. Often times, development in one area opens doors for others. For example, with the introduction of automobiles at the beginning of the 20th century, farmers were left without work. Because nobody needed horses anymore. But then the need for repairmen arose and the best choice for this job was blacksmiths.
Today, unemployment is a major problem in developed countries and this situation will worsen in the future. In 2034, many mid-level jobs will no longer be needed. The winner of this job seems to be one percent rich for now. The impending technological revolution is likely to destroy the middle class. With the development of technology, computers will start to work more efficiently than humans as well as working at less cost.
The future is not very safe for accountants, doctors, lawyers, teachers, bureaucrats and financiers. Computers will be able to evaluate tons of data and make financial or medical decisions, according to The Economist magazine. Efficiency will increase in this path towards less fraud or misdiagnosis. As the jobs of those working in these sectors are in danger, the earnings of the minority who continue to work will decrease significantly. You can estimate the effects of this situation on politics and social life.
Mechanization and transition to computer cannot be stopped. Once the arrow came out of the bow. Everyone has to accept this situation. The countries' view of these developments will be as follows; other countries will take the lead using such technologies, so we must embrace the new situation as soon as possible. Ultimately, new startups or firms will recruit those out of business. But all this will happen after the dreaded future comes true.
According to Bilger, the problem has a long history. The long life we enjoy and the dysfunctional education system are among the reasons for this problem. One of the suggested solutions is to set people globally on a salary for their basic needs. Afterwards, these people can be provided with new goals by retraining. Others may start their own businesses or support creative ideas. This solution could actually mean that humanity could get back on its feet. People who do not have to chase after money can enthusiastically work in whatever field they really want.
What about after autonomous vehicles become widespread, will the professional drivers who do this job be able to find a place in the new economic order by getting training again? Nobody knows the answer to this question. Like every sudden change in societies, this new order will have its winners and losers. The situation that will emerge will not be an optimistic utopia, nor will it be a social destruction. We'll probably stay somewhere in the middle of these two.
Robots Are Coming
Of course things will not disappear completely. Many professions will be redefined, but since people will not have the skills they need to do these jobs, many will likely be unemployed.
Many reports say mechanization will bring us to an end. According to the study conducted by McKinsey & Company at the beginning of 2017, up to 30 percent of 6 out of 10 professions will be made feasible by computers. An economist in charge of the Bank of England also states that the jobs of 80 million people in the United States and 15 million in the UK will be seized by robots.
Of course, not all professions are the same. In 2013, the research called "The Future of Employment", which received many citations at Oxford University, examined 702 known professions and some of them (marketers, tax experts, referees, etc.) It is concluded that there is a greater risk of extinction than the doctor, etc.).
In the past, professions that disappeared due to technology were often exaggerated and reported. On the other hand, technology would create more new jobs than the ones it replaces. For this reason, hostility to technology has been called "Luddite Fallacy", "the absurdity of being against autonomous machines." This term was coined in the 19th century to refer to textile workers who destroyed looms on the grounds that they would take their jobs. On the other hand, in the last 60 years, the only profession that technology has eliminated: elevator operator.
In 1930, economist John Maynard predicted that his grandchildren would work 15 hours a week, although, according to optimistic estimates, technology would increase our welfare and save us from drudgery. On the other hand, today we work almost 15 hours a day.
Today's technological revolution is very different from the industrial revolution. Change is increasing exponentially over a wide area. According to Jerry Kaplan of Stanford University, automation comes to your profession regardless. Whether you are a factory worker, a financial sector employee, or a musician, automation will one day appear.
Which Professions are at Risk
Before diving into bleak things, it's important to understand that automation doesn't mean losing your job. The data that 47 percent of the business branches that exist only in the United States are at risk does not mean that these jobs will disappear. Basically, these professions fall within the scope of autonomous technologies.
In other words; These jobs will become redefined instead of disappearing altogether. On the other hand, for the employee, there is practically no difference between the disappearance and the redefinition of the job. Because the skills required for the redefined job will not be among those who are currently employed. Professor Richard Susskind's book "The Future of the Professions and Tomorrow's Lawyers" touches this distinction. "Most of the jobs you will see in the future will be jobs in which many tasks are done together." "These people will still be lawyers, but they will do different things," says Susskind.
So which professions are at risk?
The author and futurist of Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future, says Martin Ford, professions at risk are routine, repetitive and predictable professions.
Telephone marketing is an example of occupations at risk. This job is quite routine and will likely become automated 99 percent. You are already receiving automatic calls already. Adjusting taxes will also consist of processing predictable data and will likely be done by robots. Robots seem to get their hands on the legal field. Considering that most of the work of legal advisors and lawyers is composed of repetitions, we can say that these professions are also in danger with a rate of 94 percent. A research shows that; About 100 thousand jobs in the legal sector can be done automatically within 20 years.
Chefs working in the fast food industry are also close to being unemployed by robots such as Flippy with artificial intelligence. The risk ratio of these professionals is 81 percent.
How You Can Prepare Yourself for the Upcoming Change
Justin Tobin, founder of the innovation, change consultancy firm DDG, said: “People with the habit of independent thinking are becoming better and more aware that working in a paid job is no different than spending all your money in the same place. The smart thing is to evaluate your presence in different places. That's why you see more and more people trying to move their careers in different directions every day. ” says.
Futurist Faith suggests in Popcorn similarly that we should be as agile as possible and develop different skills that we can bring to market.
Popcorn says that in the future, we will all have an average of 7.8 jobs and we will work for many different companies rather than sticking to one company.
According to Popcorn, we have remained in the midst of this massive change and this change will radically change the entire society.
Predicting the future is part of Popcorn's job, and it has proven over and over again how good it is at this business. Despite this, even he has trouble keeping up with and predicting this rapid change.
15 Jobs That Will Be Taken By Technology In 20 Years
Your job is any construction equipment, car, etc. You may soon be out of work.
In all areas such as taxi, bus, truck, uber, cargo and so on, autonomous technology will be introduced in a short time.
There are 15.5 million trucks in the United States alone. It employs 14 million people in the sector, 10 million of which are drivers. These people are in the first place against danger. Because autonomous vehicles do not need to rest, they can stay in motion 24/7, and most importantly, we have already reached this technology.
This technology is already supported by the German government, and driverless trucks are taking their business very seriously.
Elon Musk also states that his vehicles will become 100% autonomous in 1 or 2 years, and that governments will approve in the next 3 years.
All major car brands are competing with each other to develop electric and driverless vehicles, and it is certain that those who do not participate in this race will be left behind.
In the near future, driving will be like riding an elevator. You just press a button and the tool will take you wherever you want.
So what will happen to the millions of people who earn their living as a driver? These people will have to improve themselves. Although this job is easy in the 20s and 30s, it is not clear what a taxi driver over 50 can do about it.
While it seems unlikely that these people will move from taxi driver to 3D design for the virtual world, the future will show all of this.
While the number of farmers was inconceivable in the past, recently the noticeable rate has declined. While you may still see manpower-based agriculture in less developed parts of the world, in many places all production has become autonomous and is controlled from their offices by only a handful of trained people, thanks to wireless technology.
In the past, plenty of manpower was required for planting, planting, pest control, harvesting and transportation. Satellites and drones are now used for tracking, pest-fortified soil or seeds. Planting and harvesting will soon become autonomous and are being done quickly, with vehicles designed for this task. Transport will also be able to act driverless in the near future.
Soon farmers will come to mind with a job similar to bankers and similar professions. Because the number of people doing agricultural work will decrease considerably. If this doesn't make sense or possible to you, the bad news; it's already too late. Almost all of the major food and beverage brands today belong to only 10 companies.
Which companies are these? Nestlê, PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, Unilever, Danone, General Mills, Kellogg’s, Mars, Associated British Foods and Mondelez.
3. Printing and Publishing
Newspapers have come to an end. Traditional media is dying in the face of the Internet. Not from newspaper pages anymore, but twitter etc. you receive news from sources. All traditional media are fighting for survival, altogether, one after the other. Even strong brands are on the verge of extinction, although they are investing in digital.
Information is now freely available, and only a few publishers can continue their business because of their trust. The best example of this is The New York Times newspaper, which shares its articles by presenting a successful payment system to its readers.
With the change of news sources, big brands are becoming more and more difficult to find their place in this online world. In the 1970s, news was received on television. Now things are quite different.
There are over 1 million cashiers and salespeople in our country alone. This number is many times higher in the world. These people can be unemployed in less time than they think. You have seen the automatic cash registers available in some markets. Although there is still an attendant at the head of these safes for control and assistance, in the near future computers will take over the whole task.
Big companies that have taken steps in this regard show in the best way how the future is shaped. Amazon bought the Whole Foods supermarket chain operating in America for nearly $ 14 billion.
After this purchase, Amazon started testing for its stores called Amazon Go. There will be no one working in these stores. You will enter the store, buy the products you want and leave. All products you buy from the store will be automatically paid by your credit card.
The sensors and technology required for Amazon Go are currently available to us. All they need is a little bit more development.
Moreover, cashiers with artificial intelligence can work with the same performance 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, non-stop.
5. Travel Agencies
When was the last time you used a travel agency?
Skyscanner and similar applications to buy airline tickets, Booking.com and Airbnb for finding and booking hotels are equipped to eliminate all agency needs.
You no longer need third parties to arrange flight tickets or hotels. You can easily do this job on your own, or even ask Siri to do these things for you.
6. Manufacturing Workers
After the industrial revolution, people working in the fields moved to factories and started producing machines that make our lives easier.
Later in the process, the same people created machines that could build machines, and eventually people were no longer needed.
Less than 100 years ago, there is a huge difference between the production method in car factories and today's production method.
While many people worked in a row back then to build the tool, today we watch a simple software do all the work.
7. Logistics Officer
While things are not what they used to be, there is an enormous number of dispatchers employed. The logistics officer generally plans and organizes everyone's movement to keep things going.
It doesn't matter whether you work in the fire department, airport, police station or healthcare field. We already have the technology to do this job much more successfully than you. All we need is the finishing touches and finding the best way to bring this technology to life. Just 5 years ago, you had to talk to someone to call a taxi. Now things have changed completely, thanks to UBER and LYFT.
8. Waiting and Bartending
Although these professions do not disappear completely, it is obvious that many of the employees will be unemployed. Of course, waitressing and bartending is an area that requires social relations, but this is not always the case. Sometimes you just want to sit at your table, have your food and drinks available as soon as possible, then get up and go.
All these requests can be met with a properly prepared algorithm and an iPad. This new trend is already being used by many restaurants around the world.
9. Bank Clerk
Sorry, but we weren't going to the banks to socialize anyway. Frankly, we never go to banks unless we have to. We check our accounts on smart phones and use automatic payment and similar methods for money transfers instead of filling out forms.
ATMs help you when you need cash. You can open an online account almost anywhere in the world, and you only need to deal with bank employees when you need a personal service. You can even do this by phone or video call in many places.
10. Military Pilots and Soldiers
It is the structure that closely follows the innovations in the military and puts these developments into practice as soon as possible. While in the past it was determined on which side the most soldiers were, technology is the most important factor today.
Nobody goes into battle with a bayonet on their horse anymore, as that would be pretty pointless. While the pilot is sitting peacefully on the other side of the world, drones that can hit any target much more successfully than humans also prevent the pilot from entering danger.
On the other hand, the human factor is still in the military. These teams, known as special teams, step in in areas where technology does not help.